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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 7

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 16-B.Perkins pass short middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.80 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 7, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model