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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 11-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to KC 10, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 84-Ju.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.12 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model