4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 6

New England Patriots 23 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 6-N.Folk 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-17-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model