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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 66

New England Patriots 26 – Minnesota Vikings 33

What Actually Happened

(8:14) 17-M.Palardy punts 31 yards to MIN 35, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.65 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP