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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 14 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 33 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 14-R.Wright punts 43 yards to NE 12, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 13 for 1 yard (83-J.Nailor).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.65 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model