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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 33 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 14-R.Wright punts 59 yards to NE 1, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-Ma.Jones to NE 11 for 10 yards (91-P.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -2.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model