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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 70

Minnesota Vikings 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to NE 14, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 25-Ma.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 28, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP