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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 42

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 3

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 4-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Prentice, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model