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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 1

San Francisco 49ers 3 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo sacked at NO 2 for -1 yards (99-S.Tuttle).

The Three Options

GO +4.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 1, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model