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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 10 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.02 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model