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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 30

New Orleans Saints 0 – San Francisco 49ers 13

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 3-W.Lutz 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model