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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 55

San Francisco 49ers 13 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(1:58) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to NO 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 89-R.Shaheed.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.74 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 16, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP