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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 5

San Francisco 49ers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.36 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 5, worth +0.55 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP