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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 29

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.52 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 29, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 39, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model