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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 60

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to DAL 41 for 1 yard (54-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.66 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 19, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model