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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 37

New York Giants 13 – Dallas Cowboys 28

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass incomplete short right to 18-I.Hodgins [92-D.Armstrong].

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.55 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 37, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP