Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 63

New York Giants 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to DAL 14, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin. PENALTY on DAL-25-N.Wright, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.63 EP
51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 63, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model