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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 33

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 7-C.McLaughlin 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model