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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(:59) 4-M.Wright 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 7, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model