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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 41

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-C.McLaughlin 59 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-I.Loudermilk), Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.69 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 41, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model