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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 66

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(12:05) 6-P.Harvin punts 54 yards to IND 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP