4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 85

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 6-P.Harvin punts 40 yards to IND 45, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.56 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 85, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP