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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 6-M.Haack punts 49 yards to PIT 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 82-S.Sims to PIT 27 for 1 yard (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model