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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 57

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(4:06) 6-P.Harvin punts 50 yards to IND 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-46-C.Kuntz.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model