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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 67-C.Heck reported in as eligible. 3-K.Allen pass incomplete short left to 34-T.Hairston (22-G.Delpit). HOU-34-T.Hairston was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO +3.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.95 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 1, worth +0.62 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model