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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 0 – Houston Texans 5

What Actually Happened

(5:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 56 yards to HOU 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-10-A.Schwartz.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.75 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 64, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP