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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 84

Houston Texans 5 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 11-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.59 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 84, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.98 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 42, worth -1.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP