Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 73

Cleveland Browns 7 – Houston Texans 5

(:46) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to HOU 6, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-D.King to HOU 26 for 20 yards (48-M.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.99 EP
48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 73, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model