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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 7 – Houston Texans 5

What Actually Happened

(10:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 44 yards to HOU 2, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-A.Green. PENALTY on HOU-25-D.King, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 1 yard, enforced at HOU 2.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.33 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model