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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 51

Cleveland Browns 14 – Houston Texans 8

What Actually Happened

(1:42) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to HOU 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 25-D.King to HOU 19 for 8 yards (47-C.Hughlett; 69-C.Winovich).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.88 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model