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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 72

Houston Texans 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to CLE 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 30 for 6 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.99 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model