Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 64

Houston Texans 8 – Cleveland Browns 24

(7:54) 11-C.Johnston punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.33 EP
67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 64, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model