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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 63

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to DEN 7, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-25-K.Seymour.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.92 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 63, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP