4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 58

Denver Broncos 6 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.90 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 58, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP