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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 15 at the 69

Denver Broncos 9 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 17-C.Waitman punts 41 yards to BAL 28, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 31 for 3 yards (53-J.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model