Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Denver Broncos 9

(7:43) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 12-M.Washington to DEN 19 for no gain (25-K.Seymour).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.93 EP
55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 64, worth -3.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model