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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 82

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(4:22) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to BAL 19 for 1 yard (49-A.Singleton; 47-J.Jewell).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.55 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 40, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model