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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Denver Broncos 9

What Actually Happened

(1:06) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley left tackle to DEN 15 for 3 yards (47-J.Jewell).

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.56 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP