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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 72

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 11-J.Stout punts 52 yards to DEN 20, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.89 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 30, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model