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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 71

Denver Broncos 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 17-C.Waitman punts 39 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-32-D.Turner-Yell.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.86 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP