Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 76

Denver Broncos 3 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(:59) 17-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to BAL 30, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.03 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model