Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 57

Chicago Bears 16 – Green Bay Packers 10

(11:04) 16-T.Gill punts 39 yards to GB 18, Center-48-P.Scales. 18-R.Cobb to GB 33 for 15 yards (57-J.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.93 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model