Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 10 – Chicago Bears 16

(10:03) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to CHI 10, Center-56-J.Coco. 18-D.Pettis pushed ob at CHI 28 for 18 yards (45-E.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.12 EP
53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model