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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 10

Chicago Bears 16 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model