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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 22

Chicago Bears 19 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 2-C.Santos 40 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-D.Lowry), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.79 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model