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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 6

Green Bay Packers 0 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 2-M.Crosby 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.35 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 6, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP