Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Detroit Lions 17

(11:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to DET 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 11 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -1.83 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model