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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 5 at the 29
Detroit Lions 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3
What Actually Happened
(7:02) 17-M.Badgley 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+1.15 EP
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.47 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 29, worth -1.34 EP
KICK
+1.14 EP
What Happened
- 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 18% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT
-0.33 EP
- Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
