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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 13

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 10-R.Patterson 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.23 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 13, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP