4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 45

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 9-L.Cooke punts 30 yards to DET 15, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.89 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP